Mr. Cheney - Will He Last?

Six months ago, I suggested to a friend that Dick Cheney might be replaced as Vice-President before the end of Bush’s second term. We discussed the possibility that Cheney’s health might be used as the reason for leaving the Administration. Recently, we have heard that Mr. Cheney has visited the hospital on a couple of occasions with a health issue related to his heart. Is this real or is it feigned? Only time will tell.

Why would the President’s handlers want to ease Mr. Cheney out? Several possible reasons come to mind. Except with regard to the hard right, Mr. Cheney is seen as the dark image of the administration. His well-publicized support of an exception for the CIA to the ban on torture and inhumane treatment has received very negative publicity. The indictment of Scooter Libby out of Mr. Cheney’s office in the CIA/Valerie Plame affair will also continue to result in negative publicity for the Vice-President with possible increased disclosures about Mr. Cheney’s participation in the vindictive activity of outing Ms. Plame. Mr. Cheney could well be considered a negative in the perception of the President by the general populace.

Perhaps, the most important reason for easing Mr. Cheney out might be the presidential election of 2008. The most logical candidate to succeed a term-limited President is the Vice-President. While there have been some feelers about backing off his statements that he would not be a candidate in 2008, it is reasonable to assume that Mr. Cheney would not be the GOP candidate, particularly with his high negatives. The rise in stature of Senator McCain, who has been a thorn in the side of the Bush Administration, particularly on the conduct of the Iraq invasion, and who has been increasingly mentioned as the GOP candidate for president in 2008, may also be a consideration.

Easing Mr. Cheney out and appointing someone to the Vice-Presidency who would be given some highly visible responsibilities would provide that person a leg up for the GOP nomination for President in 2008. That would allow the Bush supporters to maintain control of the Republican Party, if not the entire country if the GOP candidate wins. On, the other hand, a nomination by the Republicans of McCain or someone from the more moderate wing of the GOP would probably mean the demise of the influence of the Bush supporters, even if the GOP candidate won the election.

For these reasons, easing Mr. Cheney out would make good political sense. However, it would be politically dangerous if it is perceived by the Republican right that it is being done. Hence, it is necessary to cover the exorcism with a reasonable basis to keep the Republican right in check. Poor health would be a politically defensible basis for the resignation of the Vice-President.

The next few months and the fate of Mr. Cheney as Vice-President will be fascinating to watch. If he leaves the office, the selection of a successor will be very interesting. If he remains in office, his continuing role will also be very interesting. Let us wait and see.